Nick Hood is a licensed insolvency practitioner and head of external affairs at Company Watch, the corporate health monitoring specialists.
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| Nick Hood |
Now that even George Osborne has admitted that the UK’s battered post-recessionary economy is slowing to a crawl, there can be no doubt that we are heading into a bleak couple of years or probably longer. The implications for everyone in business are profound, with the low/no growth scenario threatening the health and survival of many supply chain links, especially those companies which have already eaten their fat during the recession and were looking to the recovery phase to restore their financial strength.
Never has it been so important for procurement professionals to copy their credit control colleagues who monitor bad debt risk and start looking very closely at the financial health of the suppliers and service providers on which their businesses rely. They need to be ahead of the game in spotting potential problems.
Minimising risk has become paramount and must be an ongoing process. Simply relying on the due diligence carried out when the relationship started will lead to trouble in these times when a business’s finances can change so rapidly. What a supplier’s balance sheet looked like three years ago is irrelevant.
So far so good, because most supply chain managers can get access to credit information about their suppliers. The variety of data available can be bewildering. Amazingly, there are still UK credit information services which rely on nothing more than the net worth of a company as a guide to creditworthiness. Then there are various early warning systems, which pick up significantly adverse events like the late filing of accounts, court judgments and formal insolvency filings, providing extremely useful real time data to prompt credit managers to take urgent action to mitigate a potential loss.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are information providers who use complex analytics applied to several key aspects of a company’s financial profile, such as asset management, funding source dependence and profitability, not just as individual factors but in combination and set in the context of the country and the sector in which the business operates, as well as its relative size. A system like this also looks at trend data over several years, avoiding the snapshot mentality which can be so misleading in a dynamic, rapidly evolving commercial situation.
One of the great problems with most credit information around the world is that it relies on out of date financial data, usually the accounts filed at a public register of some type or advertised through such channels as newspapers. For example UK public domain information from Companies House can be as much as 21 months out of date, which might be particularly unfortunate when looking at the health of a company going through a sudden and survival-threatening downward spiral. Fortunately, one of the more sophisticated systems offers modelling capability to stress test risk profiles and look at all manner of “what if” scenarios. By way of example, this enables its users to input management accounts from suppliers, if they have them.
Take the hypothetical example of a well-established medium-sized raw materials supply company, with annual turnover of some £70m, decent gross margins of 13.4% and post-tax profits of £800k. Its net worth is £16m. Running the diagnostics on the latest published accounts to May 2011, the company has a health rating (H-Score) of 33 out a possible maximum of 100, not great but well above the traditional warning zone below 25 where statistically one in four companies will either fail or need major restructuring.
Using graphics, the health profile trend looks like this:
Source: Company Watch, March 2012
Moving forward six months, the November 2011 management accounts reveal that the business has achieved a commendable 12% rise in sales but commodity and other input price pressure has reduced gross margins by an apparently modest but significant 1.4% to 12%. Add in a dollop of overhead cost increases and some non-tax deductible reorganization costs and, hey presto, the profits have disappeared. The sales for the half year are £38m, the gross margin is still £4.6m, but post-tax profits have melted away to only £14k.
The health profile now looks very different:
Source: Company Watch, March 2012
Despite the growth spurt, the supplier’s H-Score has dropped from 33 to 21, inside the warning zone, making the company a potential candidate for failure and very definitely a supplier which needs to be much more closely monitored. This is food for thought for those responsible for supply chain management, who may well only have been told by this supplier that it was doing well in the recovery phase. After all, who wouldn’t boast about a 12% increase in sales in such uncertain economic times?
This hypothetical example looks at an apparently successful business, highlighting frailties only revealed by current data. But there are other equally worrying scenarios, where problems could and should have been spotted by a company’s customers long before supply chain interruption was triggered by its eventual failure.
Take the financial health profile for PSMW Distributor (PSMW), a private company in the mineral water and soft drinks supply sector, which went through a Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA) in 2011 before being liquidated in the High Court in November 2011.
Source: Company Watch, March 2012
This is a classic illustration not just of the need to recognise when a supplier may be mortally wounded and take action to avoid an unexpected supply chain interruption, but also of how long the warning signs can be there before a company’s final demise. PSMW was deep in the warning red zone with an H-Score of only 3 out of 100 based on its final published accounts for the year to September 2010. But it had been in the “red zone” consistently since its September 2006 accounts. It traded right through that whole period and presumably with customers who were either ignorant of the supply interruption risk or prepared to take the chance.
There are of course almost always alternative suppliers, who can be turned to although with inconvenience and potential business interruption. But making sourcing changes in a hurry and as a forced buyer can be an expensive game, affecting your own margins and bottom line profits. And imagine the issues if the supplier is overseas. Finding an alternative source may take longer and be a major management distraction, even after the chaos of dealing with shipments stuck in customs either here in the UK or abroad when the foreign supplier fails to pay freight charges or handling costs.
Taking advantage of the sort of advanced financial health diagnostics described in this article creates the opportunity to identify problems ahead of time and the time to mitigate these effects. They are available for international companies, as well the UK. They give buyers something priceless: hindsight in advance.
So, all who take responsibility for their company’s supply chain management, or more precisely its smooth and efficient operation, should be thinking about the potential vulnerability of its components, those suppliers and service providers upon whom they depend. Once upon a time judging the financial aspects of these risks was a dark art, now it is very much a science and one which, if applied diligently ought not to leave too much room for nasty surprises.